2025 Real Estate Outlook: Land Boom and Policy Support

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  • May 7, 2025

The Chinese property market is once again grabbing headlines as a series of competitive land auctions unfolded shortly after the Spring Festival holiday in 2025. Major cities such as Zhengzhou, Beijing, and Qingdao became the focal points for new rounds of land sales, signaling a potential shift in market dynamics. The land auction in Zhengzhou, in particular, drew significant attention as it recorded an astonishing premium of 87.5%.

On February 8, Zhengzhou witnessed the successful sale of two residential land plots. One was situated in the Jinshui District, designed primarily for urban residential purposes, which also included underground traffic service stations. It encompassed an area of approximately 31,757.61 square meters with a planned gross floor area approaching 79,394.02 square meters and a plot ratio of 2.5. The piece attracted fierce competition, commencing at an opening price of 5.81 billion yuan, eventually selling for 10.89 billion yuan after nearly six hours of bidding. The final square meter price was pegged at 13,713 yuan, marking the highest premium rate for residential land in the city since 2021.

The second plot located in the Zhongyuan District was also earmarked for urban residential development, covering 36,327.6 square meters with a gross building area planned at 90,819 square meters, maintaining the same plot ratio of 2.5. This piece sold for its opening price of 4.56 billion yuan, translating to a building price of 5,016 yuan per square meter.

In Beijing, on the same day, a plot in Shijingshan District sold for the starting bid of 28.01 billion yuan. This land is designated for residential and commercial purposes, with 28,000 square meters allocated to residential development. The gross above-ground area for this section is approximately 75,888 square meters, with a plot ratio of 2.71 and height restrictions of up to 60 meters. The commercial part comprises another 1.07 million square meters, with a height limit of 36 meters. There were no caps on land pricing or guidelines for residential sales on this particular plot.

It is noteworthy that, later in February, Beijing plans to offer four more residential land plots, with the most substantial starting price being the Zhaoyang District's Shanjianfang demolition site redevelopment project, aiming to start the bidding process with a total price of 7.9 billion yuan.

Similarly, Qingdao's land auction yielded a plot of approximately 15,965 square meters, split evenly between residential and commercial financial services. With a starting price of 3.09 billion yuan and a maximum building height capped at 80 meters, this site also attracted attention as it was successfully acquired at the starting price by a consortium involving Chengfa Investment Group and Chengfa Group from Qingdao.

Amidst these land auction developments, local governments have ramped up efforts to introduce favorable policies that could stabilize the volatile housing market. For instance, the Chongqing Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Committee announced on February 8 the cancellation of transaction restrictions for residential properties in the main urban area, effectively abolishing the existing limit imposed for two years.

Recent data from Chongqing showcased a significant increase in property transactions during the Spring Festival period from January 28 to February 4, indicating a 25.5% year-on-year growth in daily sales. Additionally, the city also reported a 12.3% surge in second-hand home transactions throughout January, further indicating an upward trend.

Moreover, Dalian has proposed adjustments allowing borrowers to secure housing loans with a minimum down payment of just 20%, no longer reliant on family property counts or sizes, while still keeping the threshold lower for designated affordable housing. This proposal also highlights increased loan limits for families with multiple children, reflecting the government's push to support family housing demands.

Real estate experts have suggested that these recent policy initiatives are instrumental in bolstering market confidence among homebuyers, developers, and investors alike. The expectation following these bullish trends is a probable uptick in contractual signings and growth in market activity.

The year 2025 marks a potential revival for several key property markets across China. In early February, reports coming out of Shenzhen showed a robust residential market with nearly 10,000 transactions recorded in January alone, reflecting a remarkable 60% year-on-year increase, displaying resilience in a traditionally sluggish period. Early land sales illustrated premiums exceeding 60%, showcasing strong investor confidence.

Meanwhile, Guangzhou has continued its positive trajectory that began in late 2024, with substantial figures reflecting activity in both new and existing housing markets. According to statistics, the newly built homes saw transaction levels soar to 101.51 million square meters from December 26, 2024, to January 25, 2025, marking a 37% increase compared to the prior month’s averages.

Real estate analysts noted that these trends are indicative of a broader recovery and a stabilizing market as developers ramp up production to meet growing demand, contrasting sharply with the earlier market downturns experienced in 2023. In the meantime, industry representatives are optimistic that the enthusiastic land bids and increased sales figures could lay a solid foundation for a more stable real estate environment moving forward.

Overall, the renewed excitement in the property landscape illustrates a pivotal shift as policymakers and market participants alike look to capitalize on the changing tide for housing in urban centers across China. The collaborative efforts of local governing bodies and the immediate response observed in the market reflect a determined approach to adapt and thrive in a dynamic real estate environment.

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